Diamonds and Silver: Two Precious Markets in Two Different Cycles

Diamonds and silver are both prized precious materials, but the latest industry data shows them in very different phases of their cycles. One is working through a prolonged contraction in trade value; the other is coming off its strongest year in decades. Diamonds: a market finding its footing - Antwerp's total diamond trade (rough, polished, synthetic and industrial) came to about USD 19.1 billion in 2025, down 22.4% from USD 24.5 billion in 2024. It was USD 32.5 billion in 2023 and nearly USD 41 billion at the post-pandemic peak in 2022. - The decline eased through the year. Between July and December 2025 the average fall was 8.3%, compared with 22.4% for the year as a whole, and December 2025 was 3% above December 2024. - Of the 2025 total, polished diamonds made up 65.6% (about USD 12.5 billion) and rough diamonds 34% (about USD 6.48 billion). Synthetic diamonds were 0.37% of Antwerp's trade by value. - Kimberley Process data point to global natural diamond production of an estimated 105 million carats in 2025, down 13% from 2022. The value of that production fell from USD 15.97 billion in 2022 to an estimated USD 8.5 billion in 2025, a decrease of 46.8%. The Antwerp World Diamond Centre describes the early signs of stabilisation as grounds for cautious optimism for the years ahead. Silver: a record year and a continuing deficit - The Silver Institute reports that silver posted its strongest annual performance since 1979 in 2025. The market has been in deficit for five consecutive years and is expected to record a sixth in 2026, of about 67 million ounces. - Total supply in 2026 is forecast to rise 1.5% to about 1.05 billion ounces, a decade high. Mine production is expected to increase 1% to 820 million ounces, and recycling to rise 7%, passing 200 million ounces. - Global demand is expected to be largely unchanged. Industrial fabrication is forecast to decline 2% to about 650 million ounces, a four-year low, mainly because of developments in the photovoltaic sector and thrifting and substitution away from silver. Jewellery demand is forecast to fall by more than 9% to 178 million ounces, while physical investment is expected to rise 20% to 227 million ounces. Why the contrast matters The two markets are driven by different forces. Diamond trade value reflects consumer demand and pricing for a single product category, together with the supply that reaches the market. Silver combines industrial use, jewellery and investment, so weakness in one segment can be offset by strength in another. For 2026, the Silver Institute's forecasts show higher investment demand offsetting weaker industrial and jewellery demand, leaving total demand largely unchanged. Diamonds and precious stones are among the commodities Innocent Resources lists for Botswana. Sources: Antwerp World Diamond Centre, Antwerp Diamond Industry Trade Figures 2025 (12 January 2026), including Kimberley Process data; The Silver Institute, Global Silver Investment to Remain Strong in 2026 Against the Backdrop of a Sixth Consecutive Annual Market Deficit (10 February 2026).