Copper in 2026: Slower Mine Growth, Softer Demand and a Market in Transition

Copper is often described as a metal with a simple story: electrification and digital infrastructure drive demand, while supply struggles to keep up. The latest forecast from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), issued on 23 April 2026, shows a more nuanced picture. What the forecast says - World copper mine production is expected to grow by 1.6% in 2026, revised down from the 2.3% anticipated in October 2025, mainly because of lower expectations for the DRC, Chile and Indonesia. Output at the Grasberg and Kamoa mines remains constrained after major incidents in 2025. Growth is forecast to recover to 2.3% in 2027. - World refined copper production is forecast to rise by about 0.4% in 2026 and 3% in 2027. In 2026, limited availability of concentrates holds back primary refined output, partly offset by growth in SX-EW and scrap-based production. - World refined copper usage is expected to grow by 1.6% in 2026, down from 2.1% previously, and by 2% in 2027. ICSG points to uncertainty from the conflict in the Middle East and disrupted trade flows. Asia remains the main driver of growth, while demand in the EU and Japan is subdued. - The refined market is now projected to show a surplus of about 96,000 tonnes in 2026, compared with the deficit of 150,000 tonnes forecast in October 2025, and a larger surplus of about 377,000 tonnes in 2027. ICSG attributes the 2026 shift to lower than expected usage and higher secondary refined production. Two trends side by side Mine supply is growing modestly and is being held back by operating disruptions and limited concentrate availability. At the same time, near-term demand growth has softened and recycled copper is playing a larger role: ICSG expects scrap-based refined production to grow by 5.7% in 2027. ICSG also cautions that actual market balances have, on recent occasions, deviated from its forecasts, and that its balance does not capture changes in unreported stocks in China. Forecasts like these are a guide, not a certainty. Africa in the picture The same forecast has African copper mine production rising from about 4.49 million tonnes in 2025 to about 4.59 million tonnes in 2026 and 4.95 million tonnes in 2027, roughly 2% growth in 2026 and 8% in 2027. ICSG expects improved Zambian output in 2027, and smaller expansions and mine start-ups in countries including Angola, Botswana and the DRC. What it means for exploration A softer near-term demand outlook does not change the fact that new mines take many years to move from discovery to production. Exploration is measured over years, not quarters. Innocent Resources' exploration focus in Namibia includes copper, alongside lithium and gold. Source: International Copper Study Group, Copper Market Forecast 2026/2027, press release of 23 April 2026 (icsg.org). ICSG meets again in Lisbon in October 2026, and its forecast may be updated.